Where is Nate Silver’s Indian Cousin?

I have followed the last 2 US Presidential Elections pretty closely. It is pretty heady stuff for a political junkie. The Election happens every 4 years and the endless discussion, debate and speculation begins almost 3 years in advance. More importantly, from about 18 months out, there are about 5 polls a week by a multitude of organizations which makes the whole exercise fascinating, but somewhat predictable. What particularly struck me was that both in 2008 and in 2012, the eventual winner was predicted by almost everybody and it turned out to be true.

In the New York Times, there used to be blog run by Nate Silver which he used to update every day with the most updated prediction about how many seats the Democratic and the Republican candidates were going to win and the same split by state. The most remarkable aspect was that Nate himself did not do any polling. He would simply review in detail the latest polling that was done by other organizations and base his prediction on their results, research methodologies, sample selection, political affiliation and their historical accuracy. For me, it was an awesome demonstration of the power of analytics.

The results, in addition to predicting the winner (not very impressive, as discussed above), Nate actually predicted the results correctly in 49/50 states in 2008 and 50/50 states in 2012! I couldn't help but compare this to what goes on here in India. Here, the pre- election discourse is dominated by the promiscuity of the political parties that change partners by the hour. Next will come the mudslinging and childish populism. Color TV for votes, cows for votes, laptops for votes, medical insurance for votes, subsidized idli for votes.. its endless and sickening. Absent from all this will be a single debate on substantive policy, or ideology for that matter.

Now let’s talk about psephology, indian style. The political parties will buy news media organizations and will dictate the results that they would publish. So, for every contest, state or center, there will be diametrically opposite results published, irrespective of how close or lopsided the contest really is. Needless to say, none of them are anywhere close to accurate and the researchers themselves will proudly admit that they don’t expect to be correct. Think back to 2004. Nobody thought BJP would lose. In 2009, not one poll predicted that the Congress would do well. The lazy reasons attributed are multiparty system, first past the post principle, vote to seat conversion etc.

In my opinion, there is only one reason. The absence of credible polling and proper analysis. If there are a few polls done regularly by dispassionate third party organizations, backed up by professional analysts, we can get to an equally impressive predictable outcome. Why doesn't it happen here? It’s time somebody raised the bar.

Where is our Nathan Selvarathnam???

Less is More in a Resource Optimized World

 It is not very difficult to hate cost cutting. After all, who wants to have less, when our body and soul crave for more. Isn't it the biggest impediment to the noble human endeavor of the pursuit of happiness?

 So, then how did this abhorrent concept take root in our consciousness? Why does anybody decide to go down this slippery slope? It's a suicidal race to the bottom and when you start cutting fat, it almost always reaches the flesh and eventually, the bone.

The trigger that leads to all the slash and burn that organisations resort to is WASTE. It is everywhere and the enormity of the damn thing churns the acid in our stomachs.

For example, every unit of electricity generated from fossil fuels is a body blow to our planet's ecological balance and a withdrawal of a currency that cannot be regenerated. Still upwards of 40% is wasted due to poor transmission and distribution.

Tonnes of grains rot in warehouses, while a lion's share of our population do not have enough to eat.

Only a tiny proportion of the earth's land mass has been utilized for civilization, but most overcrowded cities are squeezing the life out of their inhabitants.

I deliberately stay away from wastage of money because it is a completely tamed, shape shifting animal. All that one needs to do when they run out of money is to print more of it. In any case, it will be completely useless when everything else has run out, apart from probably being a good source of fibre for those of us who don't mind the foul smell and the dry taste.

Now, I come to the point. Nobody needs to consume less or endure deprivation in a world without waste. This is where OPTIMIZATION of resources comes in. A systematic approach to ensuring optimal utilization and allocation of resources will maximize availability.

The competency of resource optimization has been refined into a fine art by its accomplished practitioners. Techniques that can be deployed verifiably ensure that not an ounce more than what is required has been expended. Scaling this capability has the capacity to satiate unlimited want of any kind.

I am not MLK, but I too have a dream. A dream of a world where RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION will ensure that there is not just enough for everyone's need but also for everyone's greed.

Stupidity is over rated!

I just read an article by David Rothkopf about how stupidity as a trait is so prevalent in America that I cant stop thinking about whats happening around us here in India as well.
The first thing that comes to mind is the raging debate over the Sethu Samudram project. The idiots from the saffron sadhu party are actually opposing it saying that Adam's bridge was built by Lord Rama! Reams and reams of newsprint, endless hours of debate and countless "studies" by "eminent" historians were sent down the drain to verify this nonsense.
The problem is that education, experience, wisdom and expertise are all dismissed away as "elitist". Stupidity and buffoonery are glorified as being the personification of the common man! Nothing could be far from the truth which is that people with even a shred of competence and ability to think stay away from the political circus. Those who brave the tide are forced to become dumb and dumber before they are told that they can connect with the "masses". As a result, the stupidity quotient is the highest where it can hurt the most- making decisions that affect everyone.
The dozens of 24X7 English media channels are an important contributor to this degeneration. The rush to "breaking news" has destroyed the practice of balanced, analytical reporting. What we have instead are ultra competitive idiots showcasing their utter lack of any skill whatsoever. About the debates on TV, the less said the better. Its a shouting match where the loudest noise is made by the moderator and the participants are actually discouraged from making any sense. Controversial sound-bytes and downright rudeness are valued skill-sets.
It is also politically incorrect to look down upon stupidity or to criticise it. Sarah Palin made herself sound like a victim because she was representing "Joe the plumber" and "elitist terrorist" Obama was mocking at ordinary citizens by actually getting an education and daring to think that he can be a politician.
I don't understand why we place such a premium on don't-rock-the-boat because its actually not going anywhere!

Well done Manmohan

The cover story in the latest issue of INDIA TODAY is how timid Indian foreign policy is and how the UPA government has brought the country to its knees in the international arena. I couldn't think of a more unfair assessment of all what the present dispensation has done ever since they came to power in 2004.
Lets take the joint declaration in Egypt after the meeting between India and Pakistan. The only thing wrong with it, is what the Foreign Secretary candidly admitted later- bad drafting.

Otherwise it shows that we are committed to long term peace with our troublesome neighbour. I don't understand the criticism of "capitulating" to Pakistan. The UPA government is the ONLY one to actually apply strong arm tactics on the Pakistanis and get tangible and credible results. They have, for the first time ever, admitted that a terrorist attack originated from their soil and have actually made arrests. All this without firing a single shot. Compare this with what the "muscular" BJP achieved. A national shame at Kandahar. Intelligence failure of the highest degree followed by massive bloodletting at Kargil (I'm not even going to refer to the profiteering on coffins) and an impotent mobilisation of troops following the attack on Parliament. (The only result of the mobilisation was loss of morale and several thousand crores)

The Prime Minister's defence of the Pakistan strategy in Parliament was absolutely brilliant. There is simply no answer to his question on what the alternative to the present policy is. Israel has shown the world that the only result of a trigger-happy foreign policy is an end-less cycle of violence and hemorrhaging. Once we go down that path, there is no return and we will have to live with the reality of a hundred 26/11s every month.
Let me now come to the relationship with the United States, which in spite of whether anybody likes it or not is the world's most powerful nation. Manmohan Singh has adopted a very smart approach of finding common cause with the Americans and getting them to endorse India at every turn. The civil nuclear deal is a superb example of getting unprecedented concessions to further the pursuit of energy independence, while keeping the nation's strategic options intact. On this the prescription from the worthy communists is to shun USA altogether and get into bed with Iran, Palestine and .......China!
India is one of the few countries, maybe the only one, that explicitly aims for the greater good along with national interest in its foreign policy. The Non-Aligned movement, principled opposition to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (think about it- what is the difference between a voluntary moratorium on testing and actually signing the CTBT). We still do it because of the discriminatory nature of the agreement, while remaining resolutely in favour of nuclear disarmament. We should be proud of what we stand for...not show China's ugly example of slimy statecraft as the path to follow.
Our clear objections to climate change related emission reduction proposals and WTO agricultural tariff reductions show that we can stand up to pressure where it makes sense. India is quite unique in wanting whats good for her along with what's good for the whole world.

Lets applaud the awesome work our Prime Minister is doing and strengthen his hands. The alternatives are comrades whose bufoonery will take us back to the dark ages and rabid god-men who will bark but not bite.

Simply Superb

I have suddenly discovered that I absolutely love Woody Allen's movies. All this while I used to think that he was just another weird jerk. NOT ANYMORE!!!

I strongly encourage everybody to start by seeing ANNIE HALL. Its an amazing movie that is outrageously funny, but moving. Allen has this ability to hold up a mirror to everybody and show how hopelessly miserable our lives are- especially love lives.
The characters go about trying to live up to lofty images only to give in to their frailties, which comes through very poignantly. Even in the funny scenes, the viewer cant help but put himself in the same situation and invariably reach the conclusion that all of us are so weak.
Another recurring theme is the showcasing of artists as phony. Allen never loses a chance to mock at them. He also ruthlessly makes fun of intellectuals and sophisticates. The stunning city of New York and Manhattan provide a superb setting for these tales and his love for the city comes through beautifully. I was fortunate to visit NY very briefly and can completely understand this obsession. It is the best place on the face of our planet.
However my biggest wonder is how a very unremarkable and ordinary looking Woody had the courage to put himself as the lead protagonist and still manages to come out tops every single time.
I can go on and on with my rambling, but I guess you got the message. Watch his movies and I promise that you will be impressed. They are very very enjoyable.

Whats the point?

Over the past month or so, I have been seized by an overpowering sense of hopelessness. The strangest thing is I cant understand why. I have not (yet) been cast ashore by the giant tide of recession. The job is nice, money is OK and the family is an unending source of fun and fulfillment.

So why this awful feeling? An effort at a "root cause analysis" brings just one thought to mind- "I don't matter". All this running around to complete this and that eventually accomplishes nothing. Zilch!

For a time, I took a lot of pride in what I managed to become. An average, bumbling John Doe without any particular talent or a "skill set" was now a worker ant in a large corporation. I learnt to get by with email, PowerPoint, "reviews" and "next steps" and this somehow sustained a thought that I had arrived.

Not anymore! When I think about it, there is absolutely no value in what I do and the sum total of all my exertions throughout my life are all completely worthless. Apart from the substantial sums of money that has flown into my bank account and the resulting prosperity to my near and dear ones, nothing or nobody is better off because of what I have done.

Is this then the objective? If the ultimate goal of living is to earn a decent living, whats the bloody point?